Analytical Report from William Blair & Company, L.L.C.

Analytical Report from Columbine Capital

¶ 4:51 PM //

绝对精华. 股民必看
作者: op-1918

一、投机像山岳一样古老。

　　这句话我是从《股票作手回忆录》上看到的，每次读到这句我内心都为之一震，，虽然短短的一句话却道尽投机市场的百态，我仿佛看到在漫长投机长河中挣扎的人们，也包括作者投机失败后的饮弹自尽，投机游戏的本质不会变，人的本性也不会变，贪婪、恐惧、绝望、狂喜，而结局常常在开始的时候就已经注定。

　　二、人弃我取，人取我予。

　　这句话好象来自来自中国《史记·货殖列传》，《货殖列传》蕴含着丰富的中国古代私人理财思想，“人弃我取，人取我予。”被司马迁列为出奇制胜的重要策略，在证券市场里，我认为应该把“人弃我取，人取我予。”作为自己一种最基本思维方式来运用，多用这种方式去思考问题，保持对各种预言的警惕，并努力在别人贪婪的时候谨慎一些，而在别人恐惧的时候大胆一些。
　　三、买入靠信心，持有靠耐心，卖出靠决心。

　　这句话是我早期看的一本大众投资手册上看到的，那本书收集了不少格言，而经过时间的洗礼，我现在牢记的就是这句，三句话把投资中具体的投资行为的原则讲的简明、彻底、透彻，回顾自己的投资经历，几乎所有的错误也囊括在这三句话里。

　　四、只有持股才能赚大钱。

　　想在股票市场赚大钱，持有股票的本领要下苦功去学，不管你是否有水平研究指数，是否有水平选择股票，真正能使你赚到钱的真功夫就是如何持股，如何持股的道理可不像研究指数、推荐股票那样，几句话就说的明白的，短期内容易提高的，它需要长期的投资经验积累，心理素质的不断提高，使用控制风险的有效方法。

　　五、企业价值决定股票长期价格。

　　这句话是我研究价值投资理论之后的一句简单概括，经过这近十年的投资实践，我觉得要想既保持研究股票又要保持一颗平常心，自己必须要有一套对股票价格高低的判断标准，即使使用的是一些简单的判断标准也没关系，重要的是你一定要有，你对市场的价格高低的看法不能依靠是否在大资金的成本之上下，否则一味迷信大资金的力量，如果你交易的主要理由来自大资金的痕迹，你不能一边关注价格，却又不交易，你很容易陷入频繁的买入之中，因为你没有自己的股票贵*的标准，这样会使你常常去跟随那些其实跟许多散户同样愚蠢的大资金，在股票市场一般那些以价值发现价值挖掘为出发炒作的大资金才容易成功，才容易实现利润，单凭资金优势企图控制市场脱离了价值大肆炒作，最后结局不会乐观，证券市场越成熟，这点越明显。供给与需求创造价格短期波动，企业内在价值决定长期波动方向。

　　六、不要轻易预测市场。判断股价到达什么水准，比预测多久才会到达某种水准容易，.不管如何精研预测技巧，准确预测短期走势的机率很难超过60％，如果你每次都去尝试，错了就止损退出市场，不仅会损失你的金钱，更会不断损害你的信心，我觉得应该从基本面入手寻找一些有长期价格潜力的股票，结合一些技术方法适当控制风险尽量长期持住股票，而对于长期的市场走势给予一个轮廓式的评估。

　　七，股市的下跌如冬天的暴风雪是正常现象。

　　这句话是彼得林奇的《战胜华尔街》里的一句，“其实股市的下跌如冬天的暴风雪是正常现象，如果有所准备，它就不会伤害你。每次下跌都是大好机会，你可以挑选被风暴吓走的投资者放弃的廉价股票。”我觉得这句话很形象的说明了股票市场的周期性，人们在春、夏、秋、冬的轮回中不知不觉，而对股票市场的涨跌却经常感到惊讶，其实股票市场的涨跌起伏是多么的正常，只是我们的市场有时它的春天太短，冬天太长，我想这对在东北呆惯的人理解起来倒不会太难。

　　八、尽量简单

　　这句话是美国技术分析专家约翰墨菲的《股价(期货)技术分析预测学》一书中在引言中反复强调的一句话，他的意思是使用技术分析的时候“尽量简单”，我理解所谓的尽量简单就是掌握核心思想而运用之，如趋势一旦形成短期不可逆转。选股要选领涨股等。在我的实践中也常常提醒自己，尽量使自己的投资理念、投资原则简单，事情简单了也会就变得清晰了，对自己的投资行为约束也就变的有力了，不符合自己原则的事情也就容易抵制了，如阿甘一般，质朴简单的生活蕴涵着乐趣与真正的智慧。

　　九、不断的减少交易

　　这是从我的无数次错误中无数次损失的金钱中理解的一句话，巴菲特曾讲过：“钱在这里从活跃的投资者流向有耐心的投资者。许多精力旺盛的有进取心投资人财富渐渐消失。”其实不管你的理念怎样，是投机者或投资者，这句话都适用。减少你的错误就先从减少交易开始吧。

　　十、远离市场，远离人群。

　　《乌合之众》一书讲：人群中积聚的是愚蠢，不是天生的智慧。炒股的心态与你与人群的距离成反比，不要推荐股票，少去谈论股票，与市场的人群保持距离，与每日的价格波动也要尽量远点，不要让行情机搅混你本已清澈的交易理念。大学时代看过一本小册子讲如何体会孤独的快乐，我很喜欢书里观点，孤独是一种特殊的力量，如果你体会到了孤独感并且是快乐的，那么恭喜你，你的心灵是强大的。在股市这个嘈杂的市场里，是最应该自守孤独的地方。知止而后能定，定而后能静，静而后能安，安而后能虑，虑而后能得.

¶ 9:05 AM //

"Still, with just 4 out of every 10 people currently owning handsets, and projections that China will have half a billion users by the end of 2007, China Mobile has plenty of room to keep growing."

Pls keep in mind, Li-ion rechargeable battery is the "heart" of cellular phone.

Based on last CC. CBAK charges around $2.25 per battery, and in general, each cellular phone needs two batteries.

So by the end of 2007, the market for cellular phone battery in CHINA alone is around $2.25B.

There is a lot of room for CBAK to gain market share.

BTW, sooner or later, $35 per cellular phone will help low income Chinese peasant buy one.


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By 2006, color display phone has dominated the market. Along with frequent appearance of camera phone and multimedia phone, functions of photo shooting, receiving and sending multimedia messages, and downloading high-capacity games are used more and more often. However, in facing with more powerful 3G mobile phones, battery capacity is obviously insufficient. Mobile phone battery tends to be lighter, thinner and higher capacity. Various new battery types such as fuel cell, Zinc-air and solar cell are under the R & D process.

Regarding LIP, there are around ten competent manufacturers, among which the major foreign manufacturers are Sony, Samsung and LG, while that of China are TCL and ATL.

As we all know, China has abundant and cheap labor force. Therefore, many Chinese manufacturers adopt low-cost competitive strategy by using labor-oriented semi-automatic production lines. The build cost of a single Li-ion full-automatic production line in Japan is several times or even dozens of times of that in China. Currently, some Chinese Li-ion manufacturers have caught up with the counterparts in Korea and Japan, for example, BYD and Lishen rank top five and top ten respectively on production capabilities worldwide.

From the year of 2003 to 2006, the CAGR of the global Li-ion battery production scale will reach 23.2%, and the CAGR of sales revenue will reach 12.25%. From the year of 2007 to 2010, Li-ion battery industry will gradually enter into a steady growing period. According to us, the CAGR of production scale and the CAGR of sales revenue will be 9.85% and 5.85% respectively by then. In a word, mobile phone battery market is not only a potential huge market, but an effective and sustainable market.

The sales revenue of Li-ion battery has exceeded that of Ni-Cd and NI-MH Battery. With the market shrinking of Ni-Cd and NI-MH Battery, the popularities of consumer electronic products and mobile electronic products such as mobile phone, digital camera, PDA and camcorder etc, as well as the huge application potentials of Li-ion battery, the market demand of Li-ion will increase with a relatively rapid growth rate in the future.

SOURCE: Research and Markets


NEW YORK (AFX) - China BAK Battery Inc., which makes laptop and electronic device batteries, said Wednesday it plans to build a new factory to develop and make a new line of advanced lithium ion batteries. The Shenzhen, China-based company said the factory will be owned and operated by its BAK International (Tianjin) Co. unit and located in the Tianjin Beichen Hi-Tech Industrial Park, where private companies can receive state incentives such as tax brea ks. China BAK plans to have product shipped from the factory by fiscal 2008 at the earliest. The new batteries are intended to supply higher energy density and power, longer life and shorter charge times compared with other lithium-based batteries. Initially, the company will focus development of the new batteries to be used for uninterrupted power supplies and in light electric vehicles such as electric bicycles. China BAK shares rose 2 cents to $6.05 in morning trading on the Nasdaq.

Copyright 2006 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

¶ 5:12 PM //